GUIDE
The forecast is the expected-attendance number on your event's Overview. It's calculated from your active guest list.
Open an upcoming event. You'll find the forecast at the top of the Overview tab. It uses your event’s active registrants instead of a generic industry curve.
Each active registrant gets a base show probability. Confirmed guests sit near the top, while older unconfirmed registrations receive a lower probability.
The forecast boosts the probability for a guest who checked in to one of your past events. The system caps each guest’s probability so no guest is treated as certain.
Event factors then adjust the summed guest expectation. These factors include weather within its forecast horizon, day of week, seasonality, registration velocity, cancellation trend, capacity pressure, opt-in ratio, and proximity in time to the event.
The self-correction factor uses your past forecast errors and can adjust the number by up to 15%. Once your account has 3 closed events, a tenant model starts blending in your history and reaches full weight at 20 closed events.
Select See the factors to view every factor that moved the forecast, including its direction and size. The factor list identifies missing event data instead of filling gaps with an estimate.
The forecast also shows a range around the number. This data-volume band reflects guest count, confirmation ratio, recency, and time to the event. It isn't a statistical confidence interval.
The factor list includes Guest signals when the event has at least 10 registered guests and fresh scores for at least 80% of them. Guest signals use ticket opens, confirmation-page views, and confirmation speed. Their independent estimate can contribute up to 25% of the forecast.
The forecast number renders on every plan. Two things scale with your plan: Vantage Points insights per event (Free 1, Growth 6, Pro 15, Business unlimited) and the factor list, where the ML and historical rows appear on paid plans.
Next steps appear beneath the forecast automatically. You'll see up to 3 suggested actions based on the forecast state. Free actions appear first, and no more than 1 suggestion can require a higher tier.
Select an action to open an at-risk guest segment or compose to a segment. The product doesn't send anything until you continue through the normal compose flow.
Does the forecast use location or drive time?
No. The forecast uses proximity in time, meaning the days until the event. It doesn't use geographic or drive-time data.
When is forecast accuracy measured?
Fixed-lead snapshots at T-7 days and T-48 hours freeze each forecast. The system compares those snapshots with actual attendance when the event closes. Zero-attendance events count as unmeasurable.